{ "$schema": "https://iarpg.com/evidence-attribution-method.schema.json", "id": "https://iarpg.com/evidence-attribution-method.json", "release": "IARPG-OPS-2", "version": "2.0.30-wip", "status": "reviewed-with-limitations", "truth_boundary": "A structural editorial method, not a factual verdict engine, legal standard, intelligence authority, attribution service, or operational investigation guide.", "claim_statuses": [ { "id": "claimed", "label": "Claimed", "definition": "A named actor or source states the proposition; no independent support is implied." }, { "id": "reported", "label": "Reported", "definition": "A publisher or institution reports the proposition with an identified source basis; independent corroboration may still be absent." }, { "id": "corroborated", "label": "Corroborated", "definition": "At least one genuinely independent evidence origin supports the same bounded proposition." }, { "id": "substantiated", "label": "Substantiated", "definition": "Multiple direct and independent lines support the proposition and material counterevidence has been addressed." }, { "id": "proven", "label": "Proven", "definition": "A formal adjudication or explicitly equivalent evidentiary threshold establishes the proposition within its stated scope." }, { "id": "refuted", "label": "Refuted", "definition": "Direct evidence or adjudication materially contradicts the proposition within its stated scope." }, { "id": "unresolved", "label": "Unresolved", "definition": "Available evidence does not support a stable disposition or materially conflicts." }, { "id": "superseded", "label": "Superseded", "definition": "A later record replaces the current-use status while preserving the earlier claim as history." } ], "analytic_confidence": [ { "id": "high", "definition": "Strong, direct, mutually consistent evidence with material alternatives tested." }, { "id": "moderate", "definition": "Useful evidence supports the judgment, but important gaps, assumptions, or alternatives remain." }, { "id": "low", "definition": "Sparse, indirect, conflicting, stale, or source-dependent evidence supports only a tentative judgment." }, { "id": "undetermined", "definition": "The evidence base is insufficient to express confidence responsibly." } ], "source_reliability": [ { "id": "established", "definition": "The source has demonstrated access, competence, and a verifiable performance record relevant to this type of information." }, { "id": "mixed", "definition": "The source has variable access, incentives, or accuracy and each claim requires direct checking." }, { "id": "unestablished", "definition": "The source lacks a sufficient public record for a reliability judgment." }, { "id": "deceptive-history", "definition": "The source has a documented history of deception or manipulation; individual items still require evidence-based evaluation." }, { "id": "unknown", "definition": "Source identity, access, or record cannot be judged." } ], "attribution_ladder": [ { "order": 1, "id": "observed-content", "label": "Observed content or event", "question": "Does the post, document, outage, recording, or event exist?", "strong_evidence": "Archived original, direct record, timestamped observation, or authenticated artifact.", "safe_verbs": [ "posted", "published", "circulated", "occurred", "was observed" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Existence does not establish falsity, coordination, identity, sponsorship, intent, reach, or effect." }, { "order": 2, "id": "content-status", "label": "Content status", "question": "Is a discrete factual claim supported, contradicted, misleading, or unresolved?", "strong_evidence": "Primary records, direct documents, transparent forensics, or relevant expert consensus.", "safe_verbs": [ "is supported by", "is contradicted by", "misstates", "remains unresolved" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Disputed interpretation is not automatically false, and true content is not automatically benign." }, { "order": 3, "id": "coordination", "label": "Coordination", "question": "Did multiple assets act together under shared control or planning?", "strong_evidence": "Synchronized behavior, common administration, shared infrastructure, direct communications, or platform telemetry.", "safe_verbs": [ "appears coordinated", "the platform identified a coordinated network", "shared administration was documented" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Similarity, virality, common language, or shared grievance is not sufficient." }, { "order": 4, "id": "actor-identity", "label": "Actor identity", "question": "Which operator or person controlled the relevant assets or conduct?", "strong_evidence": "Court-tested records, direct platform data, financial trails, authenticated communications, or verified registration and device evidence.", "safe_verbs": [ "the court found", "the filing alleges", "the platform linked", "researchers attributed" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Do not infer identity from language, symbols, nationality, ideology, victim selection, or one shared adversary." }, { "order": 5, "id": "sponsor-principal", "label": "Sponsor or principal", "question": "Did an institution fund, direct, task, or control the operator?", "strong_evidence": "Contracts, payment and employment records, tasking communications, adjudication, or confidence-rated official assessment with disclosed basis.", "safe_verbs": [ "funded", "directed", "alleged to be directed by", "assessed with stated confidence" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Operator identity, sympathy, geography, equipment, or shared objectives do not alone establish sponsorship." }, { "order": 6, "id": "intent", "label": "Intent", "question": "What outcome did the actor seek?", "strong_evidence": "Planning documents, tasking, internal communications, direct admissions, or consistent action with tested alternatives.", "safe_verbs": [ "sought to", "appears aimed at", "officials assessed the intent as" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Do not infer intent solely from audience reaction, downstream harm, or topic selection." }, { "order": 7, "id": "reach", "label": "Reach", "question": "Who was exposed, and through which channels?", "strong_evidence": "Impressions, delivery logs, audience panels, recommendation data, forwarding records, or documented media pickup.", "safe_verbs": [ "reached", "was viewed", "was delivered", "was amplified" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Availability, follower counts, or reposts do not prove unique human exposure or comprehension." }, { "order": 8, "id": "effect", "label": "Effect", "question": "Did exposure change belief, behavior, policy, turnout, or system performance?", "strong_evidence": "Experiments, quasi-experiments, robust longitudinal evidence, direct operational records, or formal causal findings.", "safe_verbs": [ "may have influenced", "was associated with", "causal effect has not been demonstrated", "the study found" ], "overclaim_to_avoid": "Do not treat engagement, outrage, timing, correlation, or claimant assertion as causal proof." } ], "source_chain_test": [ "Identify the earliest accessible origin for each evidence item.", "Record every intermediate republisher and whether it adds new direct evidence.", "Group copied or derived reports into one origin chain.", "Count corroboration only when another origin was generated independently.", "Record contradictions, copied errors, translation drift, and missing originals." ], "correction_sequence": [ "Preserve the original claim, date, source, language, and status.", "Record the new evidence and its origin chain.", "State which claim field or attribution rung changed.", "Publish the new disposition, confidence, and remaining uncertainty.", "Link the earlier and later records bidirectionally.", "Expose appeal, further-verification, and future recheck conditions." ] }