IARPG-OPS-1 online Intelligence operations standard Fictional missions · neutral authorities
ANAL-01 Current Evidence & Analysis Version 1.0.0

Competing Hypotheses and Assessment

Analysis compares multiple explanations and records what evidence would discriminate among them.

Normative requirements

What conforming mission design must express.

01
MUST required for conformance

Material assessments identify at least one plausible alternative explanation when evidence is incomplete.

02
MUST required for conformance

Each hypothesis list supporting, contradicting, and non-discriminating evidence.

03
SHOULD recommended unless a documented reason applies

Collection planning prioritize evidence that can distinguish among leading hypotheses.

04
MAY optional supported behavior

Allow analysts to publish dissenting assessments with separate confidence and reasoning.

Mission lifecycle fit

Where this record applies.

Plan Validate Deliver Debrief

This list identifies the mission stages where the record is most likely to be implemented or reviewed. It does not prevent the requirement from influencing adjacent phases.

Search and implementation terms

Vocabulary carried by this record.

Supporting research

Deep links into the complete report archive.

The canonical record stays concise. These links preserve the longer argument, design context, limitations, and source lineage in the `/docs/` archive.

Connected tools and standards

Explore the wider AI ecosystem.